Gubitak dohotka vinogradara i vinara Dalmacije – eksperimentalni pristup subjektivne vjerojatnosti

IZVORNI ZNANSTVENI RAD
ISSN 1849-1146
UDK 634.8+633.25:338.632.65(497.58/.84)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.69680/ac.14.1.1

Autori: Tajana Čop, Vesna Očić, Branka Šakić Bobić, Mario Njavro

Sveučilište u Zagrebu Agronomski fakultet, Zavod za menadžment i ruralno poduzetništvo, Svetošimunska cesta 25, 10 000 Zagreb, Hrvatska (tcop@agr.hr)

SAŽETAK

Istraživanja subjektivne vjerojatnosti mogu poslužiti za procjenu rizika, ali i kao dobar pokazatelj budućih odluka poljoprivrednika. Cilj je rada ispitati subjektivnu vjerojatnost gubitka dohotka vinogradara i vinara Dalmacije uz primjenu metode raspodjele žetona. Metoda raspodjele žetona primijenjena je na uzorku od 71 ispitanika. Osnovni rezultati pokazuju kako su u uzorku pretežno ispitanici muškoga spola, prosječne starosti 47 godina, sa srednjom stručnom spremom. Vinogradari i vinari Dalmacije pretežno imaju više od 20 godina iskustva u uzgoju grožđa i proizvodnji vina, a najviše ih obrađuje od jedan do pet hektara vinograda. Ispitanici su pretežno optimistični s obzirom na gubitak dohotka, odnosno njih 90,14 % očekuje gubitke do maksimalno 50 %. Eksperimentalni pristup ima praktičnu vrijednost jer omogućuje uvid u subjektivnu percepciju rizika ispitanika, što može poslužiti kao podloga za prilagodbu poslovnih strategija i politika osiguranja kako bi se odgovorilo na izazove koji proizlaze iz potencijalnih gubitaka dohotka.

Ključne riječi: vinogradari i vinari, Dalmacija, dohodak, subjektivna vjerojatnost, metoda raspodjele žetona

Income Losses of Grape Growers and Wine Producers in Dalmatia—An Experimental Approach to Subjective Probability

ABSTRACT

Subjective probability research can be applied to risk assessment, but it can also be applied by the farmers as a good predictor of future decision. The aim of the paper was to investigate a subjective probability of income loss among the grape growers and wine producers in Dalmatia using an allocation task. The allocation task was conducted with a sample of seventy-one respondents. The basic results demonstrate that the sample mainly consisted of male respondents of an average age of forty-seven years and completed secondary vocational education. The Dalmatian grape growers and wine producers mostly have more than twenty years of experience in viticulture and wine production, and most of them cultivate between one and five hectares. The respondents were mostly optimistic about the loss of income, with 90.14% of them having expected the losses of up to 50%. The experimental approach had a practical value, as it provided an insight into the subjective risk perception of the respondents, which can serve as a basis for adapting the business strategies and insurance policies to respond to the challenges arising from potential income losses.

Key words: grape growers and wine producers, Dalmatia, income, subjective probability, allocation task method

Cijeli tekst / Full text: https://haed.hr/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/AEC-2024-01-01.pdf